Nifty 50, Sensex prediction today: Check how Indian stock market is expected to trade on 18 August
The Indian stock market is set to open on 18 August with cautious optimism, as global cues remain mixed. According to the latest data, the Nifty 50 futures are trading near the 24,500 mark, indicating a flat to positive start. Analysts suggest that the market is likely to consolidate within a range, with support at 24,300 and resistance at 24,700. The Sensex is expected to mirror the Nifty, with key levels at 80,200 and 81,000. Traders are advised to keep an eye on the US Federal Reserve's policy minutes, which are due later this week, as they could influence market direction.
In the previous session, the Nifty 50 closed at 24,467.10, up 0.35%, while the Sensex ended at 80,200.50, gaining 0.28%. The market breadth was positive, with 1,850 advances against 1,200 declines on the BSE. However, volatility is expected to remain high due to geopolitical tensions and domestic inflation concerns. The rupee is trading at 83.95 against the US dollar, and any further depreciation could weigh on foreign institutional investor (FII) flows. FIIs have been net sellers in the cash market for the past three sessions, offloading shares worth ₹2,500 crore.
Key sectors to watch include IT, banking, and auto. The Nifty IT index is likely to see some profit booking after a recent rally, while banking stocks may get a boost from expectations of strong Q1 earnings. Auto stocks could remain in focus ahead of monthly sales data. Among individual stocks, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and Infosys are expected to be the major movers. Derivatives data shows that the maximum open interest for Nifty call options is at 24,500, and for put options at 24,300, suggesting a trading range for the day.
Technical indicators suggest that the Nifty is trading above its 50-day moving average, which is a bullish sign. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 63, indicating the market is not yet overbought. Analysts recommend a stock-specific approach, with a focus on quality large-caps. They also advise traders to use strict stop-losses given the prevailing uncertainty.
| Index | Close (17 Aug) | Change (%) | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,467.10 | +0.35% | 24,300 | 24,700 |
| Sensex | 80,200.50 | +0.28% | 79,800 | 81,000 |
| Bank Nifty | 52,150.00 | +0.45% | 51,800 | 52,600 |
"The market is in a consolidation phase, and traders should avoid aggressive positions. A break above 24,700 could trigger a rally, while a fall below 24,300 may lead to a correction." - Market analysts
In the broader market, midcap and smallcap stocks are likely to outperform, with the Nifty Midcap 100 index expected to test its all-time high. However, investors should remain cautious about overvalued segments. The market will also react to the latest GST collection data, which showed a 10% year-on-year growth in July. Additionally, crude oil prices are hovering around $85 per barrel, and any spike could impact inflation and, in turn, market sentiment.
For the day, traders are advised to watch the opening trend. If the market opens with a gap up, it may sustain gains, but if it opens flat, profit booking could drag indices lower. The global cues are mixed, with Asian markets trading lower on concerns over China's economic slowdown, while US futures are slightly positive. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.2%, which is a key level to monitor.
In conclusion, the Indian stock market is expected to trade in a range on 18 August, with a positive bias. But given the uncertainties, it is crucial to stay informed and make calculated decisions. For more detailed analysis and daily predictions, visit our website.
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